India Economic Outlook

India Economic Outlook

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June 21, 2016

India’s GDP gained momentum in the final quarter of FY 2015 and pushed full-year growth to a five-year high. GDP grew 7.6% in FY 2015, which was up from 7.2% in the previous fiscal year and primarily reflected robust growth in private consumption, which accounts for nearly 60% of the economy. Nonetheless, ever since the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) introduced a new methodology last year to measure GDP, doubts continue to linger regarding the reliability of the data. According to the Ministry of Finance, the government met its budget deficit target for FY 2015, which was set at the equivalent to 3.9% of GDP. The budget deficit has been shrinking for several years and is expected to narrow further in FY 2016. The government has set a goal to reduce the shortfall to 3.5% of GDP in FY 2016.

India Economy Data

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Population (million) 1,211 1,227 1,243 1,260 1,276
GDP per capita (USD) 1,534 1,491 1,504 1,623
GDP (USD bn) 1,857 1,829 1,870 2,044
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 6.7 5.6 6.6 7.2
Consumption (annual variation in %) 9.2 5.3 6.8 6.2
Investment (annual variation in %) 12.6 4.9 3.4 4.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 3.0 1.1 -0.1 2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 68.8 67.7 66.2 66.4
Money (annual variation in %) 6.0 7.5 12.3 10.2 14.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 9.0 10.5 8.2 5.3 4.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 8.5 10.2 10.0 5.9 4.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 9.0 7.4 6.0 2.0 -2.5
Policy Interest Rate (%) 8.50 7.50 8.00 7.50 6.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %) -10.5 8.2 18.9 24.9 -9.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD) 50.88 54.28 60.02 62.29 66.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) 47.89 54.37 60.42 61.14 65.42
Current Account (% of GDP) -4.2 -4.8 -1.8 -1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -78.8 -87.4 -32.8 -27.6
Trade Balance (USD billion) -183.8 -189.5 -136.6 -137.3 -118.5
Exports (USD billion) 306 300 314 311 261
Imports (USD billion) 490 490 451 448 380
Exports (annual variation in %) 21.7 -1.8 4.6 -1.2 -15.9
Imports (annual variation in %) 32.4 0.1 -8.0 -0.7 -15.2
International Reserves (USD) 295 293 304 341 356
External Debt (% of GDP) 19.4 22.4 23.9 23.3

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